Prediction market betting explained
Prediction market betting is really probability trading. This guide explains the mindset, the math at a high level, and why tools like Polifly focus on analysis—not “locked picks.”
Prices are forecasts
When you buy Yes at 40¢, you’re roughly saying the event is underpriced vs your model—after costs.
Edge sources
Better information, better models, faster updates, or better risk control. Most “secrets” are just process.
Risk
You can lose money quickly. Educational software like Polifly does not remove risk.
Related guides
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Educational software only. Not financial advice. Markets involve risk of loss.